Harvar Epidemiologist sounds the alarm
Coronavirus worse than expected
Harvard epidemiologist explains.
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding, a Harvard-trained epidemiologist who taught at the school for 15 years, published his alarming analysis of the corona virus outbreak on Twitter Saturday and called the virus “thermonuclear pandemic level poor” and declared “I really hate to the epidemiologist who must admit this, but we may be confronted with an uncontrolled pandemic that the world has not seen since the Spanish flu of 1918. “
His full Twitter thread is shown below:
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
HOLY MOTHER OF GOD – the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad – never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating… #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreakDr. Eric Feigl-Ding
· Jan 25, 2020
Replying to @DrEricDing
2/ “We estimate the basic reproduction number of the infection (R_0) to be 3.8 (95% confidence interval, 3.6-4.0), indicating that 72-75% of transmissions must be prevented by control measures for infections to stop increasing…
Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding
3/ … We estimate that only 5.1% (95%CI, 4.8-5.5) of infections in Wuhan are identified, and by 21 January a total of 11,341 people (prediction interval, 9,217-14,245) had been infected in Wuhan since the start of the year. Should the epidemic continue unabated in Wuhan….
4/ we predict the epidemic in Wuhan will be substantially larger by 4 February (191,529 infections; prediction interval, 132,751-273,649), infection will be established in other Chinese cities, and importations to other countries will be more frequent. Our model suggests that..
5/ travel restrictions from and to Wuhan city are unlikely to be effective in halting transmission across China; with a 99% effective reduction in travel, the size of the epidemic outside of Wuhan may only be reduced by 24.9% on 4 February. Our findings are…
6/ …critically dependent on the assumptions underpinning our model, and the timing and reporting of confirmed cases, and there is considerable uncertainty associated with the outbreak at this early stage. With these caveats in mind, our work suggests that…
7/ a basic reproductive number for this 2019-nCoV outbreak is higher compared to other emergent coronaviruses, suggesting that containment or control of this pathogen may be substantially more difficult.”!!!! #wuhanvirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #ChinaCoronaVirus …
The eighth tweet in the thread, which was deleted or deleted for unknown reasons (at the time of publication, Dr. Ding had not responded to a request for comment), was recorded in a screenshot:
2019-NCORV detection is done with PCR
Gentaur delivers nucelic acid controls, called Nattrol for Coronavirus detection.
We currently supply 3 deactivated NATTROL controls and a PCR kit.